澳央行维稳利率不变 称澳元可能进一步走软

2013年全球一周议息情况(7月1日-7月5日)

澳洲联储(RBA)周二(7月2日)公布利率决议，宣布维持指标利率在2.75%不变。该决定符合市场普遍预期。澳洲联储称，当前澳洲政策适宜。

澳洲联储在发表的简短声明中还称，澳元汇率仍然高企，澳元可能进一步下滑；按照历史标准来看，大宗商品价格仍处在高位；澳元汇率下降将有助于经济平衡。

经济方面，联储声明称，近期数据确认澳大利亚经济增长略低于趋势水平；较低的矿业投资水平，将令经济增长低于趋势；劳工成本增长已经放缓。

通胀方面，澳洲联储称预计在未来1-2年内通胀将与中期目标保持一致；通胀水平表明必要时仍有一些放松政策的空间。

澳洲联储还称，全球金融环境仍然宽松，全球经济增长前景有所改善；受美国经济前景影响，国债收益率走高。

附:澳大利亚央行声明(英文版)

Statement by Glenn Stevens， Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today， the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.75 per cent.

Recent information is consistent with global growth running a bit below average this year， with reasonable prospects of a pick-up next year. Commodity prices have declined further but， overall， remain at high levels by historical standards. Inflation has moderated over recent months in a number of countries.

Globally， financial conditions remain very accommodative. However， a reassessment by the market of the outlook for monetary policy in the United States has seen a noticeable rise in sovereign bond yields from exceptionally low levels. Volatility in financial markets has increased and there has been some widening of credit spreads.

In Australia， the recent national accounts confirmed that the economy has been growing a bit below trend over the recent period. This is expected to continue in the near term as the economy adjusts to lower levels of mining investment. The unemployment rate has edged higher over the past year and growth in labour costs has moderated. Inflation has been consistent with the medium-term target and is expected to remain so over the next one to two years， notwithstanding the effects of the recent depreciation of the exchange rate.

The easing in monetary policy over the past 18 months has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values and further effects can be expected over time. The pace of borrowing has remained relatively subdued， though recently there are signs of increased demand for finance by households.

The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 10 per cent since early April， although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time， which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.

At today's meeting the Board judged that the easier financial conditions now in place will contribute to a strengthening of growth over time， consistent with achieving the inflation target. It decided that the stance of monetary policy remained appropriate for the time being. The Board also judged that the inflation outlook， as currently assessed， may provide some scope for further easing， should that be required to support demand.(Resource:Reserve Bank of Australia)

澳大利亚央行声明(中文版)

近期得到的信息符合这样的看法，即今年全球经济增长略低于平均水平，明年加快增长的理由较为充分。大宗商品价格已进一步下跌，但总体而言，仍处在历史高位。最近几个月一些国家的通胀有所放缓。

全球金融环境仍非常宽松。不过市场对美国货币政策前景的重新评估导致主权债收益率从极低水准明显回升。金融市场波动性增大，信用息差有所扩大。

澳洲最近的经济增长数据证实，近期增长一直略低于趋势水平。短期内这种情况料将持续，因经济对矿业投资减少作出调整。

过去一年失业率小幅升高，劳动成本增幅趋缓。通胀与中期目标相符，预料未来一至两年将维持此一态势，尽管近期汇率走贬会带来影响。

过去18个月来放宽货币政策，已支撑对利率敏感的消费及资产价值，预料随着时间的推移可以预期还有进一步的作用。借贷的速度仍旧相对温吞，尽管近期有一些迹象显示家庭融资需求增加。

澳元自4月初以来已经贬值约10%，不过仍处于高档。汇率有可能进一步贬值，这将有助于经济成长的调整。

今日会议中，委员们认为目前较为宽松的金融状况将有助于经济成长转强，同时也符合达成通胀的目标。委员们认定当前的货币政策立场仍属适当。委员们同时也认为从当前评估的通胀前景来看，若有支撑需求的必要，可能有进一步放宽政策的空间。(来源:汇通网)