沃什改革路线图落地：五大专组聚焦通胀 数据及资产负债表重构

新华财经北京7月10日电 美联储周四正式公布五项专项任务组的领导层名单及工作目标，标志着主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）对央行核心运作方式进行系统性重审的计划进入实质执行阶段。十余名来自学术界、前央行官员及企业界的外部顾问获任牵头人，其研究领域涵盖生产力与就业、公共沟通、资产负债表政策、通胀框架及经济数据质量。

沃什在声明中表示：“美国经济在过去一代人中发生了巨大变化，当前正处于最为显著的转折点。各任务组将审慎评估现有工具、分析方法及政策框架是否存在改进空间。”他强调，引入跨学科顶尖智者的目标明确，即确保美联储在这一关键时期能更有效地实现价格稳定与充分就业的双重使命。

跨界组合打破传统智库边界

此次顾问人选呈现出鲜明的“非传统”特征。在生产率与就业任务组中，保守派风险投资家马克·安德森（Marc Andreessen）、微软Xbox业务负责人阿莎·夏尔马（Asha Sharma）与斯坦福大学教授查德·琼斯（Chad Jones）共同领衔。该组将重点评估人工智能等通用技术对经济的影响。沃什此前曾提出，AI驱动的生产率提升或使经济体在不引发通胀的前提下维持高速增长，这一观点构成其主张低利率环境的重要论据。

公共沟通任务组则由英国央行前行长默文·金（Mervyn King）、巴西央行前行长阿尔米尼奥·弗拉加（Arminio Fraga）及华盛顿大学教授彼得·费希尔（Peter Fisher）领导。默文·金曾在2022年撰文批评前瞻指引已成为央行的负担，主张沟通应聚焦于随经济形势演变的叙事，而非预设利率路径。这与沃什弱化政策信号释放的改革方向高度契合，尽管后者对任何形式的预先承诺持更为彻底的怀疑态度。

直面量化宽松后遗症与数据滞后

资产负债表政策任务组由哈佛大学教授卡伦·戴南（Karen Dynan）、芝加哥大学教授拉古拉姆·拉詹（Raghuram Rajan）及前美联储理事杰里米·斯坦（Jeremy Stein）组成。拉詹曾警告量化宽松存在“单向棘轮效应”，指出金融体系在流动性扩张期形成的借贷习惯难以在缩表时自然消退，这使得缩减资产负债表的难度远大于扩张过程。该组将考察当前资产负债表制度的成本、收益及其制度性影响。

通胀框架任务组汇集了诺贝尔经济学奖得主托马斯·萨金特（Thomas Sargent）、哈佛大学教授格雷格·曼昆（Greg Mankiw）及国际清算银行前顾问威廉·怀特（William White）。美联储于2020年采纳的“平均通胀目标制”因疫情后物价飙升而被迅速弃用，该组旨在为当前经济环境构建新的通胀应对范式。

经济数据任务组则由沃尔玛前首席执行官道格·麦克米伦（Doug McMillon）与经济学家拉杰·切蒂（Raj Chetty）、凯文·墨菲（Kevin Murphy）共同负责。沃什认为决策者过度依赖回收率下滑的传统政府统计数据，而私营企业掌握的信息可能更具时效性与准确性。他在近期演讲中表示，期望一年后能发现有助于优化决策的新数据源。

咨询性质决定改革上限

根据美联储公告，五个任务组将在工作人员支持下独立运作，秉持证据导向向联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）提交研究成果。然而，这些小组的职能仅限于提供咨询建议，FOMC并无义务据此采取行动。

分析指出，沃什试图说服美联储逐步解除自2008年金融危机以来形成的非常规操作模式，这是一项雄心勃勃的制度押注。但任务组能否真正重塑美联储的制度肌理，而非仅产出被束之高阁的报告，最终取决于沃什能否争取到理事会成员、地方联储主席及职业雇员的认同。

以下是来自美联储网站原文：

The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced the leadership and objectives of its task forces to advance the conduct of monetary policy.

"The Federal Reserve's commitment to price stability and maximum employment is unwavering. As is our resolve to pursue our mandate with rigor," said Chairman Kevin Warsh. "The U.S. economy has changed significantly over the last generation, and never more so than right now. Each task force will carefully consider whether policymakers' means and methods, analytical tools and policy approaches can be improved upon. I am honored that the best minds from a range of disciplines have agreed to work with us to sharpen our performance as an institution. The goal is straightforward: to ensure the Fed is best positioned to achieve our objectives in this consequential time."

The five task forces will examine areas central to the broad conduct of monetary policy. They will be co-led by external advisers—accomplished economists, business leaders, and former central bank practitioners—with deep expertise in their fields. Supported by Federal Reserve staff, they will operate independently, with a mandate to follow the evidence, provide candid feedback, and produce rigorous findings for the Federal Open Market Committee.

The leaders of the five task forces are:

Communications: Review how the Federal Reserve conveys policy deliberations and decisions amid uncertainty.

Peter R. Fisher, professor of practice, Foster School of Business, University of Washington

Arminio Fraga, founder and chairman, Gávea Investimentos; former president, Central Bank of Brazil

Mervyn King, former governor, Bank of England

Balance Sheet Policy: Examine the costs, benefits, and institutional implications of the Federal Reserve's current balance sheet regime.

Karen Dynan, professor of economics, Harvard University

Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business; former governor, Reserve Bank of India

Jeremy Stein, professor of economics, Harvard University; former governor, Federal Reserve Board

Data: Improve the quality and timeliness of real economic signals that inform the Federal Reserve's policy judgments.

Raj Chetty, professor of economics, Harvard University

Doug McMillon, former president and CEO, Walmart Inc.

Kevin Murphy, professor of economics, University of Chicago

Productivity and Jobs: Assess the economic impact of new general-purpose technologies, including artificial intelligence, to inform the Federal Reserve's policy judgments.

Marc Andreessen, cofounder and general partner, Andreessen Horowitz

Charles I. Jones, professor of economics, Stanford University, currently on leave at Anthropic

Asha Sharma, executive vice president and XBOX CEO, Microsoft Corp.

Inflation Frameworks: Revisit how the Federal Reserve understands and responds to the drivers of inflation.

Greg Mankiw, professor of economics, Harvard University; former chairman, Council of Economic Advisers

Thomas Sargent, professor of economics, New York University; Nobel laureate

William White, senior fellow, C.D. Howe Institute; former economic adviser, Bank for International Settlements

编辑：马萌伟

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